What were the chances of selling an Eastside home in February, 2007?

Monthly Statistics for February, 2007


So what were the chances of selling a home on the Eastside in February 2007?

Sellers had a 42% chance of getting a home sold in February.

This is a fabulous increase from the 33% chance sellers had to sell a home in January. Almost half of all the condos and homes listed in February received offers. This is obviously a very positive trend and it speaks volumes about the direction of our market. Thirty-two% of the homes for sale in December sold, 33% in January, and now in February there was a 42% chance of selling. The amount of properties on the market has increased by only 23 homes/condos, 3%, and the number of sales has increased by 9%.

Looking back at 2006, your odds of selling a home were a bit stronger in February 2006 than this February, but not by much, since 46% of the homes sold as compared to 42%. It will be interesting to watch if our typical yearly patterns continue this year as they have in most of the past years. If you take a look at the Eastside Summary reports (click on statistical reports for 2007) you can see how more of the inventory sells in the spring. Spring is generally more of the seller’s market. I predict the same market swings as we have generally seen in the past few years with the market more seller friendly in the spring and more buyer friendly as the year moves on.

Of course, each area is slightly different. For example, there is a much larger amount of homes available in on the plateau, Snoqualmie, and Issaquah north of I-90. There were almost 500 homes available in these areas. This is a result of the boom in construction that is happening in Snoqualmie right now. These new homes have added greatly to the amount of inventory available in these areas. However, if you look at some of the more established areas of the plateau such as in Sammamish, they, too, do not have many homes for sale.

If we look to areas such as Bothell, Woodinville, Duvall and Kenmore, 380 homes were available. The Kirkland area came in next with 275 homes on the market in February. Inventory declined sharply in many of the other areas such as Redmond/Carnation with 187 homes, West Bellevue with 114, West Redmond/East Bellevue with 98 homes, and Mercer Island with only 90 properties available. The lack of inventory in these areas explains some of the increase in appreciation in each of these areas. The median price of homes in West Bellevue has increased by 68% from last year! This will explain why in some areas homes will have more than one buyer and may sell with multiple offers.

Good news for condo buyers: available condos increased by 26% from 406 in February of last year to 515 this year. More condos sold than last year as 328 condos sold as compared to 301. Even with all the new construction condos being built in all price ranges and the huge number of condo conversions, there still is a dearth of inventory. If you look at February of 2003, there were about 1200 condos on the market, so 515 available now do not represent many condos. In the next few years, many more condos will come on line, particularly in the luxury market.

Don’t forget to look at the attached charts on my website for this past month and past year. (Click on statistical reports for 2007 and for January 2007). Look at statistics-year to date charts to find this information. These charts will clarify a lot of the information.

For those of you who are familiar with my monthly statistics reports, you can see I have changed the format. I try to present market information in the most meaningful way possible. I plan to spend time analyzing the information presented in the past to see if there is a better way to present the individual price range data. However, feel free to contact me if you do have questions about the performance of each of the different price ranges.

Debra’s monthly tip: Since you never know when you may sell, take photos of your yard as the season progresses. Great photos of your yard can always be used in marketing, even if you sell in the dead of winter!
http://debrasinick.com/docs/2007_Year_to_Date.pdf

So what was the most expensive home in the Lake Washington School District? What was the least expensive?

While reading through the NWMLS 2006 statistical recap I found the sales ranges in the Lake Washington School District for 2006. Here is what the report said:

Median price: $569,950
Average sales price: $668,508
Lowest sale price: $164,500—Except, this is wrong!
Highest sale price: $6,175,000

I found the mistake when I looked up the listings for these homes. The $164,950 “home” was actually a condo in Kingsgate! So the stat for the least expensive home in the LKW schools is incorrect. The listing agent had erroneously listed the property as a single family home, which it is not.

I looked up the real truth about the least expensive home in the Lake Washington Schools and after wading through a list that covered manufactured homes and homes out in the Riverview District, I found it. The least expensive home was located on Union Hill and sold for $240,000. Built in 1941, it’s a two bedroom, one bath home on a 9000 square foot lot. (I need to let the NWMLS know about the mistake.)

Now the most expensive home, which sold for $6,175,000, is located right in downtown Kirkland. I happened to preview this home when it was listed and it really was something special. It had been designed to be a home and an office space at the same time. The finishes were fabulous in this home.

This research has gotten me thinking and I now want to know more about the least expensive and the most expensive 2006 home sales in West Redmond. Where were these homes and what were the sales prices? I will put this information in one of my next blogs.

What were the chances of a home in West Redmond selling in January, 2007?

As part of my blog for West Redmond, I will look at the market performance for the area and let you know what the sales activity was like for the previous month. I will answer this question each month:

What were the chances of a home selling this past month?

What were the chances of selling a home in West Redmond and East Bellevue?
(these areas considered the same areas in the MLS)

33% of the available homes sold in January, 2007.

There were 107 homes available for sale and 37 of them sold.

Statistics tell us it is a buyer's market as less than 45% of the homes sold. However, I believe the homes priced over $600,000 fall into a buyer's market. There is so little inventory under the $600,000 range that these homes, if they are priced right and show well, are going fast. Under $600,000 is more of a seller's market.


How do I get this information? I look at the statistics each month which you can find in this link or on my website, www.debrasinick.com. I analyze the supply and demand for each month. If the percent of the homes selling is 45% or below, we are looking at a buyer’s market. If this percentage, which we call the absorption rate, falls between 45-55%, then we have a market balanced between buyers and sellers. A market in which 55% of the available homes sell is a seller’s market. Last year, sellers markets were found in March through June, while the rest of the year was more in the buyer’s camp.

Each week I receive information specific to each area and price range on the eastside. For example, if you want to know how many homes in the Kirkland area are for sale and sold for $750,000-$1,000,000 this past week, I can tell you. It is critical to know the absorption rate so you will know what your chances of selling will be. By examining the statistics, I am able to tell you this information. I am happy to share those facts with you at anytime so you know what is happening in the market.

Advice to buyers for the 2007 market

As we move forward in the 2007 real estate market it is helpful to see how the 2006 year end played out. If you click on the link you will be able to read my full report.

http://debrasinick.com/docs/Stats%20for%20Dec%202006.pdf

After looking at this information, watching how this year has begun (see my post for January 2007 stats), and the increase in home values, I want to focus on how you can maximize your home purchase. For those just starting out, it has been more difficult with each passing year to purchase real estate on the Eastside. Here is some advice as to how to do it and make the most money you can as a home owner.

My advice to the first time home buyer: get into the real estate market as soon as you can. Buy a condominium. Condominiums have appreciated better than single family homes with about a 24% increase in value during 2006. (see my State of the Market post)

Think about the emotional and financial benefits of owning your own place. You can make it your own, you can write off the interest on your mortgage and real estate taxes, and you can build equity. Rarely does anyone start out buying the home of their dreams. Most people start out buying a wonderful place to live in, but hopefully a place that will be a good investment.

Remember, you may “get a good deal” when you buy, but you also need to look for a great property to sell later. Maybe the home you purchase at a great discount today is not the best investment for the future.

How can you make the best buying decision so you will have a great home to sell?The key to that good investment is to remember today you are a buyer, tomorrow you will be a seller.

So here are the key questions to examine when making the best investment for future return:

Know thy neighborhood!

Location, location, location is still the key.Know the neighborhood pros and cons.

How far are you from employment centers, public transportation, highways?

What is the reputation of the school system and specific schools? Would the value of your home or condo be stronger if you purchased a similar home in a different school district?

What are the area amenities? Are you close to shopping, parks, etc?

Historically, what is the appreciation in the area?What is the current absorption rate of the homes?

Are there positive/negative present issues or future issues that impact the neighborhood and will affect your future resale value?

Know thy home or condo!

Check out the builder. Know the builder’s reputation.Has the builder been involved in any lawsuits?What is the builder's reputation for quality? (You should try to find this out even with a home that is not new)

If you are buying a condo, is it brand new construction or an apartment conversion?

What do the home owner’s dues actually cover?

Is insurance covered in the dues and what do you then need for insurance?

Do you know what a resale certificate is?

Is the floor plan a good one for your needs and for future resale?

Are there any important structural issues that seem apparent?

Should you reconsider purchasing this home or bring it to the attention of a building inspector if you decide to buy it?

Is the home in need of updates? What would be the best updates to make in the future?

Is the home located on a good street?

Is the yard a good one?

Are there noise issues?

Is there an active home owner’s association? Are there rules which will prohibit you from doing what you might want to do?

Is the home priced right for the current market?
What is the direct competition?
How many homes are selling this month?
What is the recent sales history?

These questions and more should be answered when buying a home or condo. Remember, a home buyer will a home seller be in the future. If you can answer these questions and believe you are making a good investment, then go for it! Happy hunting!

Feel free to comment if you have any further questions you think are important to ask before you make that home purchase.

One of life's biggest dilemmas

I am here to help you solve one of life's biggest dilemmas. Imagine it's Friday night, you are tired, you've worked hard, and it's been a long week. You face the challenge of the week: Where to go for dinner? This is a question my husband and I often ask each other. Sometimes after a long week you want to go for dinner without thinking much about it. Ever feel that way? For those of us who struggle with the eternal dilemma of where to go for dinner, there is a website for all of us.

Have a little fun and take the decision out of the decision making process.

All you have to do is plug in your zip code and see what the wheel of food picks for you.

Enjoy!
Let me know if you use this site and if it worked for you!
www.coverpop.com/wheeloffood/

State of the Market- a review of 2006 and a look at 2007

This information comes from the statistics charts for the full year, please take a look at
http://debrasinick.com/docs/2006_Year_to_Date.pdf

The 2006 real estate market was a real roller coaster ride. Overall, prices were up for the year. Inventory climbed each month, peaked in October, and dropped off at the end of the year. With the increase in inventory, the fall proved to be the toughest time to sell a home.

As I mentioned in a statistics report in June, I could see the number of homes for sale increasing dramatically. We started the year with only 2031 homes for sale. By September, inventory peaked with 3218 homes. December saw a drop in inventory to 2165 homes. This was1100 homes less than September, but only 100 more homes than we started with in January of 2006.

The best month to sell in 2006?
March, when 61% of all the homes listed sold!

The month with the greatest number of sales in 2006?
May with 1367 homes sold.

The month with the largest number of homes for sale in 2006?
September with 3218 homes for sale.

The toughest month to sell in 2006?
November when only 20% of the homes sold.

How did the year end? On the eastside prices increased an average of 19%. The increases varied, Mercer Island took the price, oops the prize, in 2006 with 36.9% appreciation. Downtown Redmond, Education Hill and Union Hill were next with a 26.9% increase in pricing and West Bellevue followed closely with 24.1% The Redmond/Bellevue area around Microsoft showed a price increase of 9.4% while Kirkland prices were up 15.3%.

Overall, 10% less homes sold in 2006 than in 2005. A few areas showed an increase in sales, but this was the exception rather than the rule. Seventeen percent more homes sold in West Bellevue and 16% on the plateau.

My crystal ball for 2007: We should see a strong market this year. The rate of appreciation will be less than 2006 and definitely less than 2005. I believe the increase for the Eastside will continue, but at a slower pace. There will be exceptions to this rule, such as the neighborhoods of West Bellevue and Mercer Island. Strong increases in pricing will still be seen there. The best time to sell your home in 2007? If you can do it, put your home on the market by April. The stronger absorption rates and the greatest number of sales happen in the spring.

Watch our employment rates. This will give you a good clue as to where we are heading in the real estate market. The more jobs created, the more houses will sell and the more likely will be an increase in prices. Pay attention to the absorption rate each month and this will also give you a clue as to market performance.


Enjoy 2007!

How do our home prices compare to the rest of the country?

It is interesting to see the cost of home ownership in most of the other major metropolitan areas of the country. The National Association of Realtors has compiled a list of the cost for homes in the major metropolitan areas of the country. The chart shows the median sales price for each of the areas from 2003 through the third quarter of 2006. In addition, you will be able to see the percentage of appreciation for the three quarters of 2006 in each area. Double digit appreciation was on the rare side for most of the country. However, in the Seattle area, the overall appreciation for the first three quarters of 2006 was 14%. We actually experienced great appreciation for last year when compared to other parts of the country. The area with the greatest appreciation for the first three quarters of 2006 was (drumroll, please) Salem, Oregon with an appreciation rate of 24.7%. Following closely behind was Elmira, NY. Homes appreciated at the rate of 21% (Elmira? I want to know what is going on there!) It is also interesting to see the many areas that declined in appreciation last year. Many of the stronghold areas of appreciation in the country, San Diego, Los Angeles,etc, experienced negative appreciation or single digit appreciation.

The range of appreciation in the Seattle area varies according to the specific city and neighborhood. But, stayed tuned, more on that will be coming in a later posting for our Eastside neighborhoods...

http://www.realtor.org/Research.nsf/files/MSAPRICESF.pdf/